Okay so we all know from polling (every man, woman, child and invertebrate has been polled it seems) that the public broadly supports the Dems on the gov’t shut down / healthcare circus. And we kinda know that they support the GOP on the debt ceiling issue if they manage to frame the argument as being about “fiscal responsibility” and spending etc.

So theoretically the first battle should have been settled in the Dems favour and the second one in the GOP’s favour. The war playing out in a 1 – 1 draw.

Theoretically. Because an interesting thing may very well happen on the way to next month’s circus.

The budget debacle (in which polling  shows the Dems should win the battle for popular opinion) is STILL not resolved and the debt ceiling fight is about to start in earnest.

Thus it seems that the two battles will now become one MEGA battle (revolving around both issues) in which the winner takes all.

This could be VERY interesting. Mainly because just as the public supports the Dems on the budget / shut down issue, they broadly support the GOP on the debt ceiling issue. So if the two fights turn into one BIG fight, who will the public end up supporting?

This battle is turning into a winner-takes-all Super Bowl of political  warfare.

Boehner has made it clear that he wanted to avoid the shut down confrontation (which he knew was a loser in terms of public opinion) in order to save his ammo for the debt ceiling crisis, which is he thinks he can win. And he may kinda sorta get what he wants now as the shut down / ACA fight carries on so long that it merges with the Debt Ceiling fight.

So who will win this showdown?

Will the Dem’s be able to make this mega-confrontation all about the gov’t shut down & ACA stuff and win, or will the GOP manage to grab the narrative and make the fight all about the debt ceiling / supposed “fiscal responsibility” and win this gloves-off political cage fight?

With mid-term elections just round the corner,the stakes couldn’t be higher. The team that wins this mega-fight will triumph in the mid-term elections, and the one that loses this stand-off loses in the mid-terms. Control of the House and Senate will be probably be decided this month.

Stay tuned!

 

 

Maybe.

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